Those are possible scenarios, but i dont think on the balance of...

Those are possible scenarios, but i dont think on the balance of probabilities would hold. Why?

Xstrata was already a party to negotiations prior to NKP being given the option to take the 15% operatiing lease option from IGC. If Sage wanted to go the direct Xstrata link, or vice versa, that option was already available and knocked back. This whole scheme of arrangement was developed by NKWE for a 2 party JV play.

NKP being backed by Xstrata is also a theory but doesnt seem logical as if Xstrata were smart, and they are, they would simply bugga NKP off and just buy IGC rather than mess around with supporting stakes. After all, what is a couple hundred million to them when they have an option to commit a couple of billion to NKP in the agreement.

Anglo wouldnt be a player as Xstrata would simply pull out and negotiations recommence all over again. The purpose of this deal is to streamline the JV and remove counterparties. Anglo involvement would only complicate or delay the process.

Therefore, i still think Tony has his eye on the LT prize and will be going for a scrip play in NKWE, looking at the long term for maximum value. That is his style - that is what has made him rich - that is his recent history (CFE deal).

To the holders, i hope i am wrong - i am no longer a holder - have made lotsa money on this one already - just keeping a watching brief for the next entry point.