Hi Newland, I was sell side small caps as recently as 4 months...

Hi Newland,

I was sell side small caps as recently as 4 months ago (until this cursed markets forced a change in direction) so I can confirm that the mood amongst micro and small cap fundies who had a resources mandate was 'no new positions' for the first half of this year. So this goes part of the way to explaining the lack of traction with instos post the Xstrata transaction. Anyone long resources over the last 12 months has been hammered and had to spend a great deal of time managing exisiting positions.

Having said that, there are clear signs of a thawing in sentiment towards risk assets and I would expect QE3 to add further momentum here. Given this, I agree that at the moment the market is confused about AVB. You only have to read the rumbling across these boards to ascertain that. Instos would be the same; interested but waiting for the PEA & Vale transaction to ensure that promises of early cashflow to fund PB are in fact realistic.

I remain bullish AVB because I love the land holding, am intrigued how management keep finding deals with the majors and am encourage by the exploration results to date.

But in the interest of objectivity, I am a little bit confused about the following that seem to have disappeared from the agenda -
1. Serra Verde,
2. Agua Boa,
3. Trial mining licence etc.
4. Touro nickel
Explorers can be chaotic but these were all much hyped announcements that seem to have run cold of late. Now I am prepare to give a management team that I have much conviction in the benefit of the doubt for the moment because the Xstrata transaction, PB drilling and Vale negotiations have obviously been monopolising their time of late. That is why I am really looking forward to a strong statement on the mining plan and timeline to be made once they have released the Antas scoping study and PB JORC upgrade.
I certainly am still very optimistic for a good result from AVB. However I certainly would be disappointed if management do not provide a clear timeline and plan for production once current met testing and exploration initiatives are completed. I expect that instos are doing the same. But they will definitely be interested.
For those bagging TGS, their biggest shareholder is Trafigura as was the case with Anvil Mines until their recent takeover by the Chinese. The region of the DRC which houses TGS has been a stable mining jurisdiction for some time. Kabila is also adding a period of relative political calm in the DRC and recent elections went well by African standards. So once Kipoi stage II feaso is out I will be having another crack. Tried to trade it recently around the Fidelity sell-down but stood before the Fido train too early and missed the dip down to 22c.