What I would say has happened is the final drawdown we assumed...

What I would say has happened is the final drawdown we assumed to be Duchess was actually this First Columbus outfit. Which also might explain why it seemed to take longer (unfortunately there's no drawdown period listed in the appendix 3B so there's no way of verifying this, but it makes sense- perhaps First Columbus take longer drawdown periods). As to whether it's a better deal we don't know as the details haven't been published yet (personally I'd assume it's about the same deal as Duchess gave us0 the 3.5 million drawdown was at a price of 18.5p, which is a 7.5% discount if we take 20p as the average price so pretty similar terms).

Range has never seemed to have a problem getting funding- they managed to stay afloat during the dark days in 2007-2009 even in the midst of the financial crash, albeit at heavy dilution costs. I wouldn't read too much into the placing being oversubscribed- plenty of those eligible for the placing would have got as many as possible knowing it's a quick and easy 15% profit with minimal risk, though I don't ever anticipate funding being a problem while the fundamentals remain strong.

The Trinidad purchase is exciting because of the future prospects involved, not so much what we're getting right now (we are still getting a good deal just as things currently stand with Trinidad, but the major upside will obviously come from increasing production and exploration there).

Right now with Trinidad we've got 600bopd. At current oil prices ($110 WTI) that's a profit margin to Range of around $45. So...

As things stand:

600*$45*365= $9,855,000. At 10x earnings you're looking at a NAV of $98.5m. We got the deal for $75m, including the value of the shares, so that shows a bit of upside, but not loads at this precise point.

However, give it 3 years and 4000bopd (minimum work programme):

4000*$45*365= $65,700,000. At 10x earnings you're looking at a $657m asset, which would underpin the current market cap- hence why it's an 'insurance policy' against any drilling disappointment. At 4000bopd we'd be producing 1,460,000 barrels a year, so we'd be reliant on proving up some of the 20 million prospective resources (as P1+P2+P3 is only 7 million or so meaning we could only produce at full capacity for 5 years, though with increased drilling this figure should increase).

With a bit of luck (a discovery on the Herrera formations) and 10000bopd (top end target):

10000*$45*365= $164,250,000. At 10x earnings that's a $1.64bn asset

Trinidad valuation therefore depends on what value you ascribe to potential.

Personally I'd value the asset at what current bopd figures are- I'm confident we'll get much higher than that, but it will take time, and also by the CoS of a Herrera well drilled this year to be successful. Assuming we drill one of the bigger 60mmbl targets first (usually you drill your biggest target first), give recoverability of 30% and CoS of 20%, that's 3.6mmbls recoverable net to Range (risked value), which at $45 profit a barrel to Range is $162m. Add that to the $98.5m figure for what 600bopd is worth and current asset value should be priced in at about $250m (?150m) currently. That will rise given time (development of assets) which is why it's a 3 year play.

The two Georgia wells:

300mmbl OIP between them
70% CoS (risked 210mmbls),
30% recoverability (risked 63mmbls)
40% to Range (risked value of 25.2 mmbls recoverable)

With Brent at $120, and subtracting $30 for lifting costs that's a $2.27bn asset (25.2mmbls*$90).

The government gets 65% of that, so our 35% stake is worth $794.5. Call it an actual value right now of $500m though as it'll take us a bit to start drilling, and several years to set up full field production.

So $500m in Georgia, $250m for Trinidad, and $120m for Texas NCR+ Cotton Valley, and you get $870m (?528m).

Divide ?528m by the 1.85 billion shares now in issue and you get 28.5p based just on what we have going on this year alone, and excluding Puntland. That's also excluding any production increases in Trinidad this year (only factoring in the current 600bopd and a 20% CoS with one Herrera formation drilling) and any further appraisal drilling in Texas (plus the fact the Texas reserves valuation was made with oil at $80 a barrel, now it's $120). Which is why the current price is a joke. It's trading more than 1/3rd below it's risked potential for this year alone, nevermind subsequent years! If you add on any potential for increased production in Trinidad, or the chance of AOI mobilising for Puntland, or the chance of getting ohhshore rights, this should be trading at 30p+.

What we need now is to start the development process in Trinidad and mobilise in Georgia so the market can start adding on that value. Be nice if we got Puntland mobilisation too but I won't be holding my breath.