Just my 2 Bobs worth (no pun intended CB),My rough calcs for the...

Just my 2 Bobs worth (no pun intended CB),

My rough calcs for the POTENTIAL oil reserve size for Surprise goes like this:

APPROXIMATE Assumptions:

1.Pay section thickness 25 mtrs
2.Lateral extent so far 200 mtrs
3.Width 200 mtrs
4.% of recoverable oil per CM of SSt reservoir 1%
5.CM = Cubic Metre

Therefore each 200mx200mx25m section will equate to 1Million cubic metres of oil bearing formation.

Hence the 1% of recoverable oil in 1 million CM SST = 10,000 cubic metres of oil.

1 cubic metre of oil = 6.29 barrels of oil

So a 200mx200mx25m section holds approx 62,900 barrels of oil.

A one kilometre square by 25 mtrs ( oil bearing formation) thickness gives,

1000mx1000mx25mtrs = 25Million cubic mtrs of oil bearing formation


25Mill x 1% = 250,000 cubic mtrs of Oil

250,000CM x 6.29 =

1,572,500 Barrels of oil for each square kilometre of 25 mtr oil formation.

Applying a 15 square kilometre area to the above assumptions I get,

15x 1.5725 Mill = 23.5875Million barrels of oil from the Hypothetical Surprise reservoir 15km area.

There are far too many variables to slot into a fixed formula ,as PS181 notes. So maybe a closest to the pin comp may be in order to set the creative juices flowing. May as well since none of knows any better until the fat lady sings .. Can I see JH dressing up as the Fat Lady .. LOL!

It’s certainly not a duster...just needs to get some commercial oil flowing .. even under pressure?

By the way 10 mill bbls would be a great result .. At least it would provide some long awaited cash flow... They will do well to gross $30/bbl .. even a net figure of $10/bbl will give this scenario a $100mill net return. Forget thinking about Billions and Trillions! ,Millions would be a good result.

The dark days MAY be over .. then again ????

By the way, the specific gravity of water is 1

A cubic metre (1000 ltrs) of water weighs 1 ton (1000kg)

Oil floats on water ..meaning it's lighter than water.

A cubic mtr of Oil weighs approx 800kg

http://www.eandp.demon.nl/glossary/MEASUR~1.HTM




Cheers,
HR
No advice given or intended .. Do your own Every Thing! ( Research, Gain, loss, punt, etc, etc )It’s your money but the tide could be turning.