ahhh the cohesive nature of range shareholders!It all depends on...

ahhh the cohesive nature of range shareholders!

It all depends on what level the dilution occurs at in the end.

At the moment Range is worth about $US25-30m in market cap for Peru and half of Puntland. If they issued $US25m worth of scrip at current levels then the dilution would be huge - especially once they used funds to excercise the Consort option.

If however they announce a few jv's between now and AIM and we manage to get our SP up to say 10c the our mkt cap is around US$100m plus options market cap of around US$30m (removing the cash generated from excercise) so then a US$25m raising is only 15-20% of the company.

I have said it a few times before but my guess about where they are headed is -

Old Range holders end up with around 40% (used to be 50% before the Consort deal)
Consort end up with around 40% (after dilution but they do get some nice US$ payments - it will look good if they turn out to be the Puntland Govt won't it!)
New AIM capital raising 20%

Roughly speaking that will leave the shareholding of a cashed up Horn Energy looking very concentrated ie

Consort 40%
Current Range top 20 20%
New AIM holders 20%
Current ex top 20 20%

The first 3 or 80% have shown they are in for the long haul and a good portion of the last 20% appear to be as well so something less than 20% of shares will be available to the wider public in the greatest oil story of the 21st Century.

The progress slowly continues on the path they have told us about. Typically when they get around to telling the market something there is a little flurry of annoucements - the time is ripe for a little journo coverage pre Sir Sam visiting - an EGM in the wind - they better be quick if they want Sir Sam to be here for it - maybe he comes for the africa downumder talk and then a week of roadshows before the EGM?
Then they all bugger off to London for an AIM listing - best guess is late Oct but given the timeline always pushes back lets say early Nov and then it goes from 10c to $1 by christmas. (which will be $2 to $20 after consolidation)