announcement - price still slides , page-8

re: price still slides - balmersdog... balmersdog...

Yes...it's a bit of a conflict of interest at the moment.

LEG (Creasy and Co.) would obvioulsy like to see the options in the money and by extension, a higher issue price on the placement...on the other hand, those taking up the placement want to see the price as low as possible.

I have a feeling today's action...and possibly even tomorrows...will be very temporary.

Most of the serious players know what's going on and in my opinion, are simply waiting to see how low thing might go...expect some good bargains.

Remember, the placement is to be calculated from the daily VWAP for the 10 days prior to April 20...given this scenario, I will hazard a guess at what may now transpire.

1. Forget about MM...he only has 4m odd shares, which basically means his impact will be relatively short lived...he may have even offloaded most of them today?

2. Short lived or not however, MM's selling would be music to the ears of the placement group, who are no doubt quite happy with the current state of affairs...they will also be doing everything in their power to stack the sell side, in order to keep it very top heavy. LEG (Creasy and Co) may even decide to let things slide a little at this point.

3. At the same time however, LEG (Creasy and Co)...and possibly even the placement group...will have a floor, below which they will not want to see the shares fall. The last thing these guys want is to create a terminal sell-off scenario.

4. I suspect at the last minute, perhaps on day 8 or 9 of the placement period, the overhead will begin to vanish and support will appear for the stock once again...this way, the price will be trending up at the time of the placement cut off date...instant paper profits for those taking up the placement. Interestingly, because the placement price is to be calculated from the VWAP of the preceeding 10 days, the share price could effectively reach 18c on the last day and still have very little effect on the final issue price.

Interesting don't you think?

5. At this point LEG (Creasy & Co), the placement group and virtually every other large buyer over that period will more than likely be supporting the stock once again.

This is all just speculation, but if well managed, the placement group will get their low price, remaining overhead (temporary holders) will be flushed out, MM will be purged...and we may even end up with an "in the money" options scenario.

Cheers!