announcement, page-17

"Wow - almost all uncertainties answered"

Sums it up perfectly Spozzie! -pretty much laid out on a platter now - not unlike end of August 2010 when many variables were already out there but still we lagged in SP.

The trigger then? - a research report associated with large buyers entering. Sounds like we have exactly the same scenario. With Bell Potter already doing a research report, and roadshows this quarter here and O/S we are overdue for some new blood in the ranks. The previous research report provides plenty of easy homework for the brokers so won't be hard to punch out a few more and that Ebitda target for the first plant gives a solid basis for a SP target to be issued.

Whats 33mill ebit worth? thats 23mill after tax - throw that in any online DCF calculator.....looks great :-)

Cap-raising fear - surely now put to bed, sounds like if they raise 10 mill it will be a surprise - they only need 25, and not all of it straight away as most the cost is in equipment and the new plant will be in lines so that multiple input sources can be processed simultaneously. So we have half capacity signed up already, so perhaps we will put in 2/3 of the capacity to begin at most - thats about 18mill at most by my calcs - they have 10 already with options conversion, plus 6months of Moolap at full tilt - another 3mill easy so another 5 needed. Surely they can borrow that but even if they raised 5 - will make insignificant difference to us.

So like Aug2010 - just a matter of when the big money chooses to go and who goes first? - with roadshows due this quarter it will be before then for sure and rather than pump and dump there will remain a very strong motivation to hold till mid year for even ST money with the Silica spin-off forecasted by then.

So whats to stop us now? - the last maybe...the Alox customs issue now resolved so nothing. Its all go.