"Melua I would not be surprised if the bidding on DBCT goes to 2.4b- 2.5b"
Well 2.5Bn would be 11X EBITDA for 2011. MCG takeover offer at $2.50 implies a 2011 EDBITDA multiple of over 15.
Frankly, I am thinking higher than $2.5Bn for DBCT.
This from the Intelligent Investor:
"The asset for which there is significant demand is the jewel in BBI's crown: Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT). Serving as a gateway to the Bowen Basin Coal region, the largest known coal deposit in Australia, this infrastructure is as essential as essential infrastructure gets. The asset is fully regulated by the Queensland Competition Authority and the contracts with mining companies are "take or pay". With demand apparently double DBCT's current capacity, it's irrelevant at the moment, but the mining companies need to pay the same amount whether they use the terminal or not. It's an extremely attractive asset to infrastructure funds and potentially, the mining companies themselves. Frustrated by the lack of investment in additional capacity, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton would love to get their hands on it."
I understand Xstrata are Macarthur Coal are serious interested buyers as well.
BBI Price at posting:
6.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held