HAW 0.00% 5.9¢ hawthorn resources limited

announcemnt out 9.15, page-30

  1. 727 Posts.
    Gawd knows.Your valuation is probably as good as anyones. I've been using the following guidelines but this is very much my personal thinking and in no way should be taken as any sort of realistic valuation.

    NMDC pays $40mill for 50% of LCY, logical conclusion LCY should be worth $80mill once (if?) the deal goes through.

    How much of that is Mt Bevan? Dunno, but I'll take off $10mill for their other stuff (I haven't the faintest idea if that's reasonable or not).

    At that price LCY's 60% share of Mt Bevan is worth some $70mill. HAW's 40% would be worth $45mill? MC at the moment (without counting options) about $35 mill, so 30% undervalued?. Who knows, but enough potential in it to interest me.

    Now if NMDC pays $100mill for 50% of LCY, then by my calcs HAW's %40 of Mt Bevan could be worth more than $120mill. 7c?

    In the end it'll all come down to what the market thinks. Surely we've all seen shares run to 10c or more on nothing but market sentiment. I know I've also seen shares that should be worth 10c languish sub 5c due to market sentiment.

    The long and the short is my valuation is somewhere between a couple of cents and 10c. Sorry I can't be more helpful than that but there's a reson they're called speccies.
 
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