Am I convinced? Not yet, but I also don't say he can't be right.
The Gann times from July 15 and the 21 day lag of our market sure suits July 15 as a significant low whether exceeded or not IMO.
For Robbbb, here it means from Aug 5 and the usual Gann times. So I don't argue with your Sep 5 date.
I thought ninelives did I nice TA job on BHP in its thread. While H&S formations are something I too look at, their success rate is not what it was. His target of $22 is NOT unreasonable in a worst situation, and I had settled for a little higher based on long term moving averages plus the historical percentage pullbacks seen.
Personallly while I like to measure targets that way and have seen plenty of success, I always put time first these days and then historical action followed by current action.
If you wanted a nasty BHP chart you couldn't really imagine much worse.
Apart from the minor H&S that worked and the the current larger H&S, there is the EW pattern of 5 waves down, a wave 2 up and a vicious wave 3 seemingly in the works.
I only mention BHP here as it is such an important component of our market.
I still see some positives, so I refuse to lock myself into a rigid position.
Yes daily looks bad, weekly looks somewhat constructive and monthly is both good and bad depending on individual sectors.
Markets tend to go from nice trends to range trading and vice versa.
Seems the trading range must be wearing thin, so a trend has to close.
I used to find whipsawing action frustrating, until I realised that the longer the range trade the larger the trend to follow.
The tendency is to lower your bets as the ranging continues, but the idea is to increase the bet once the boundaries fall.
There still appears too much hope IMO.
That can work if there is a rebound to come and worse down the track.
But from an absolute low, there still seem too many refusing to acknowledge defeat.
Maybe those BHPers are the key. Every day many say they will buy more if it goes lower. What they are going to buy more with is interesting, as if they have bought more on the way down they obviously have no spare cash.
There does seem to be a fair bit of anger developing by long term BHP holders at the "ridiculous" price fall.
I saw one sell out today and when quite a few more do with the call that the markets are rigged and premium companies are not valued properly and that they are switching to other forms of investment and will never touch the stockmarket again, then it will be time to commit to the long side in a serious way.
(20min delay)