Annual Earnings for PLL : The matrix SQ, page-28

LOL ... that be true not just for SYA but for a number of companies I'm holding. So there is a disconnect right between the discounted value of future (mid term - say 5 years) cash flows of the company. What's causing that? Fear of

1. Interest rates getting out of hand (bad for stocks) ... check for yourself ... $500m/yr for next 5 years
at 7.5% discount rate NPV = $2,022M;
at 10% discount rate NPV = $1,895M;
at 12.5% discount rate NPV = $1,780M and
at 15% discount rate NPV = $1,676M;

2. rapidly rising Interest rates cause recession (really bad for some sectors) ... recession "dampens" demand (even for EVs) ... while we bulls might simply shrug it off and say the demand has shifted to the right a couple of years the reality of finance bites us in the ass (as capital becomes scarce). We talk a lot about the "supply gap" ... but that is predicated on huge demand growth and recession will slow that no matter the incentives on offer.

3. Commodity price (amongst many things) crash ... which shrinks that cash flow number going into (1) above and costs of production rise in (2) above which shrinks margins - esp if they cannot be passed on to the consumer as demand floats further into the future.


I try to be realistic in my views. Some of my portfolio is pure speculation (small bet stuff) ... PLL is not in that portion (neither is SYA for that matter). I don't understand the narrative put forth by a number of posters ... and I give it about as much thought as they put into their posting (none). It's not a binary market where PLL must fail for SYA to win or any any other combination of stock pairs. I've got my own basket of stocks for this space and I believe that is a better way to invest.