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20/10/21
08:42
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Originally posted by GGG77:
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There's that controversial topic again. The highly debated TO theory. I enjoy these conversations because it get's us thinking about the possibilities. And at this stage anything is possible and many potentially predictable theories are not necessarily predictable. It wasn't that long ago that we're getting told by the BOD they would be seeking a JV partner with deep pockets and a good chemical background. Since Tony got on board it seems many things have changed. We've demerged the non-lithium assets (absolute master stroke) and now they're talking mining KV themselves as if they never entertained the idea of a JV. Tony also snubs the idea of selling anything, backing up his argument with the justification for leaving BHP. He wouldn't have jumped ship only to polish up KV and sell it off. We can thank some of the long termers for attending more recent meetings in person and delivering the feedback from one on one conversations had with members of the Board. To add to this Tony's more recent affirmation regarding the "not for sale" stance, he stated during the recent Boom in a Room conference "Not a day goes by where we're not approached about Buldania but we intend on keeping it". Tactics or not, intent to go all the way and "not for sale", Tim will tell you himself... everything has a price. The question is who would be interested enough to make such a bold offer and what kind of offer would they bring to the table to secure LTR as a WHOLE and get it over the line. LTR is worth more than KV alone as we all know, hence the emphasis. How do you value the unproven and secure a deal for an asset with mind blowing potential such as the 4th largest hard rock, unencumbered, 100% owned, high grade lithium resource in the best mining jurisdiction in the world? And if you are that bold to make such an offer when do you make the offer? Who has the time to wait for Buldania to be proven up? In this environment if you haven't already secured your future lithium requirements on this scale you may never do so. And the longer you wait the higher the value. Let's entertain the BHP theory. If they have their eye on us with any seriousness to take over LTR are they going to make an offer after Offtake-Agreements are in place and/or secured? From the knowledge that I've gained from the great mentors on here it sounds like an outfit like BHP would never agree to a JV. Which makes me think that they'd also avoid someone else's baggage, including previously negotiated arrangements such as offtakes. If that's the case then their best potential to make such an offer is post DFS but before any Offtake Agreements. That gives them a month by my guestimations. Otherwise they'll be making offers on a company with accumulated baggage. Tony's mention of the DFS during the Boom in a Room conference made it clear that it's just about ready but no clues as to whether we are days or weeks away. He said "We're in the final throws of getting ready to publish our DFS". Who's game enough to assume that's not next week? If you're seeking to make an offer on anything LTR you'd want to be ready to pull the trigger. "Liontown has engaged with in excess of 50 parties who have expressed interest in off takes". The flow on effect from the DFS will be huge! Let's say an offer is presented. If you were Tim and you had the share holders interests in mind, which he has, and had many highly invested family members interests in mind, which he has, and had the entire BODs highly invested interests in mind, which he also has, and LTR was not for sale then what would you accept? Keep in mind LTR is likely to be worth 11 figures in 3 years from now before any costs are even recovered or profits are generated. It can only go north from there. If you were Tim what's your price to walk away? I'll take an even $10b. Thanks for coming!
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Excellent post @GGG77 . Only thing I would like to throw in is what is Tim's aim in life. I would guess that he has more than enough money for his lifestyle. Whilst I would agree everything has a price I would also suggest that, as you get older, money becomes less important than achieving an ambition. Unless of course you need the money. I am a similar age to Tim and if my ambition was to become a tier one miner and I had worked all my life in that industry towards this aim. Then this is what I would still be working towards. Especially if I did not actually need any more cash for my lifestyle. So I would propose that ambition, even a bucket list, might be the driving factor and I see a take over unlikely.