But I agree with you on CUY, it can be EXPLOSIVE. Hardly any shares in the free float.
Their project, while smaller than B4M, is a little beauty, and is not far off from production. With their own drill rig, they are on the "front grid, as it were.
A must have in the next uranium upleg
cheers
Vayama
AGS is a class act. However, based on forecast EPS, CUY is much better value.
25% of 1.5M lbs pa in 2010, the EPS is very low. On 25% of 4.5M lbs pa in 2012, the EPS still makes AGS close to fully valued already.
272,851,285. Costs of say $15 lb. Revenue of $95 lb.
EBITDA on 1.5M lbs = $30M. Say free carried, no interest and depreciation. NPAT = $21M and EPS = 7.5 cents.
EBITDA on 4.5M lbs = $90M. Say free carried, no interest and depreciation. NPAT = $21M and EPS = 23 cents.
On PE ratio of 12, share price target for 2013 = $2.80.
Smart money will be selling into any major announcements.
Vayama
oops.....EBITDA on 4.5M lbs = $90M. Say free carried, no interest and depreciation. NPAT = $63M and EPS = 23 cents.
Vayama
try same scenario on CUY..
current 70M shares on issue...say 100M at production...
100 tonnes of uranium pa on $15lb costs and $95 revenue = $18M EBITA or $10.5M NPAT. EPS = 10.5 cents.
150 tonnes of uranium pa on $15lb costs and $95 revenue = $26M EBITA or $10.5M NPAT. EPS = 16 cents.
200 tonnes of uranium pa on $15lb costs and $95 revenue = $35M EBITA or $10.5M NPAT. EPS = 22.4 cents.
On PE ratio of 12, share price target = $2.70
In summary, at maximum production, on same costs, CUY and AGS have similar EPS forecasts, based on my very very rough numbers.
However, currently CUY is half the price of AGS.
Further, CUY could surprise everyone and be producing before AGS.
AGS Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
