Competition has definitely been stepping up in the last few...

Competition has definitely been stepping up in the last few years. A change I think many have missed.

So many companies now building ~20MW+ Data Centre's now. The only impediment is an investment committment/sign off and then in 2-3 years you have another 20-40MW entering the market from just 1 company, or ~100MW and in short order in the case of Airtrunk.

I believe the original Western Sydney Digital Realty DC's were the ones purpose built for Amazon. So I have no doubt the new investment decision is based on it also.

There will be a few 100MW available over the next 5years and that's before we here any other expansions. When you compare this back to the prevoius scale S1 (15MW) or even S2 (30MW), I personally think there will be a period of oversupply. This will bring competition to & cap prices and reduce the rate at which Data Centres fill up.

Company by MW once finished.
Airtrunk will have ~200MW built in Sydney.
Digital Realty will be at 250MW
Equinix will be at ~140MW+.
NextDC will be at ~115MW.
Global Switch will be at ~50MW
MAQ will be at ~50MW.
~800MW from just 6 companies and thats just what's on the cards now. Compare that to NextDC's current MW Utilisation, to get an idea of scale. These are going to be much longer term builds in my opinion.

And you still have many others getting built. Another one going up next door to S3, Iseek, ASX DC @ Gore Hill.

No matter which way you look at that is a massive escalation of supply in a relatively short period. Eventhough I agree the market direction is fully in the direction of cloud, etc. I think you are reliant on new use cases to justify that size.

NextDC needed to be more aggressive & build S2 much larger.