Hi H
I reckon people have been jumping the gun a bit this week. Everyone seems edgy.
Am I right in saying today was day 26 at SNE3? Did the company not say it expected testing to take four weeks? With the ORA still on site, it seems testing - or at least finishing up - might not yet be complete. So to assume an announcement on Monday/Tuesday as many seem to be might be a bit presumptuous.
It is also not certain we will get great revelations from Cath on 15 March. FAR is of course bound by ASX rules and would need to announce anything new to the market either before Cath's speech, or, I guess, before the opening bell the following day. A TH called on the morning of the 15th, though, would signal the Big Announcement everyone assumes will happen that night.
(It is feasible, though, isn't it? Cath will speak around 1800/1900 AEDT, or ... drum roll ... 0700/0800 London time. The LSE opens at 0800, so ... further drum roll ... Cairn as operator could easily make a pre-market announcement, allowing Cath to speak freely in Melbourne.)
As I am wont to do, I returned to Cath's Q&A seeking clues as to what any Big Announcement might entail. It would almost
have to be the declaration of commerciality and here, maybe, is the clue. Read her statement carefully:
"Although we are confident that we have sufficient barrels in the ground, the flow test from SNE-3 and the proposed interference testing will provide very important information in support of the deliverability and connectivity of the SNE reservoir before a decision on a declaration of commerciality can be made. The appraisal program has been designed to get us to this point."
My reading of the tea leaves hangs on the meaning of the phrase "the appraisal program". If we take this to mean the initial three wells, then Cath is saying that confirmation of deliverability and connectivity at SNE3 gets the DOC over the line. Honestly, I think that's what she's saying. Put that together with Malcy's Tweet and JP's teasers and you have a Grade One Conspiracy Theory confirmed.
The flow test results from SNE3 will surely be out before the 15th - 11 more days away - and we can rely on Ya et al
to give us a credible guide as to whether they meet Cath's carefully outlined requirements for commerciality. But while we might well 'know' before the 15th, it would be a fantastic thrill to hear Cath utter the words on the night.
What a great week for FARites, capped off (sorry) by a nice closing auction on Friday night ... just in time for the pub.
Finally, just to indulge a little: My little bro finally conned his missus into letting him buy in today. Better late than never, but as I told him: There's plenty left in the share price yet.
Avagoodweegend.
OOO
(20min delay)