Opaline, an opportunity to thank you for the clear analysis and your interpretations of management's releases. I can't understand what the hell what they're talking about most of the time. The communications from Hill End are easily the most obscure and confusing to a layman of any goldie I've been interested in.
Less is more. Less proper nouns. More competent, hopefully 3d, graphics done by a professional. Not crap on graph paper, or diagrams with lots of unexplained lines and lots of little coloured patches with no explanatory legend.
Now to pick on your performance:~)
Your calculation of a hoped for year of production seems to go like this:
100 tonnes X 23g/t divided by 31 = ozs/day = 74
Then to get your figure of 27,080 ozs/annum, you have multiplied by 365! Is that likely?
However a more conservative number of production days, like 300 for a year, still gives a figure I'm comfortable with of 22,258 ozs/annum. And at A$1,100/oz that's still revenue of ~$22 million.
That would be just fine by me, if they can achieve that level of daily tonnage, and yearly cash inflow at this early stage. If I could be sure they'd do that, I would still be buying.
The Sept cashflow report shows them spending about $7m on exploration/evaluation, production, admin, and fixed asset investment. Actually the figure is a bit less but the expense on fixed assets is low, so I've rounded up.
I don't know how realistic it is to base a yearly cash outflow on the last quarter. I assume production/development expense will go up now, but hopefully exploration/evaluation will go down?
Anyway multiply by four and the notional cash outflow to be met for a year is $28m. So that would leave HEG 6m short, which would be met by the cash they had at bank at the end of Sept Qtr ($7.5m)
I notice that they estimate that their cash outflow for the Dec Qtr will only be 4m, which is 3m less than I'm assuming, so there should be breathing space.
All I care about is that they are able to meet expenses, without trying to borrow, or issue many more dilutive shares at recent prices. That's what distinguishes HEG from a company like MCO for me.
It mostly rests on that ability to process 100 tonnes of ore per day that you premiss.
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