another hurricane

Hurricane warning on S. Fla; Tropical Storm Alpha forms

BY MARTIN MERZER, FRANCES ROBLES AND JENNIFER BABSON

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One ferocious and relentless hurricane. One historic tropical storm. Three areas of intense concern, including South Florida -- now under a hurricane warning.

Area one: Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Hurricane Wilma repeatedly clobbered the tourist havens of Playa del Carmen, Cancún and Cozumel. Thousands of people trembled through a second day of misery as the powerful storm barely crawled through the region.

By Saturday night, the death toll stood at three, but reports were scarce from the still-under-attack region. Fearsome damage was certain. In Cancún, the Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon.

''Everything that was green is gone,'' said Silvia Barrera, business manager of the La Voz de Mexico newspaper, which publishes The Herald's international edition in Cancún.

Area two: South Florida. Forecasters said it became increasingly clear that Wilma would strike and race through Florida. Landfall likely will come Monday morning along the lower Gulf Coast, possibly as a strong Category 2 or borderline Category 3 hurricane.

Experts warned of deadly storm surge flooding in the Florida Keys -- and they urged all residents to leave immediately. They also warned that tornadoes could swarm across the southern half of the state as Wilma collides with a cold front advancing from the north.

''The recipe is there for increased tornado threats,'' said Mike Stone, a spokesman for the state Division of Emergency Management. ``Folks really need to watch that.''

Late Saturday, hurricane warnings were posted for the Keys, from south Miami-Dade through Broward to Jupiter Inlet along the East Coast, and from the state's southern tip all the way north along the Gulf Coast to Bradenton. That means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.

Officials advised everyone in South Florida to shutter their homes and complete any other preparations this morning, before the weather sharply deteriorates.

''Our window of opportunity to get prepared is closing,'' said Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez. ``We know Florida is going to be impacted. We just don't know where.''

The official forecast called for a 70 percent chance of rain today, with 20-25 mph wind. The rain chance grows to 90 percent Monday, with 60- to 65-mph wind and 80-mph gusts.

If Wilma deviates just slightly from the projected track, sustained hurricane conditions could reach Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

Residents of the Keys and Sanibel, Captiva and other barrier islands along southwest Florida were ordered to flee. Schools will be closed Monday in Broward and Miami-Dade.

Area three: Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Unbelievably, Tropical Storm Alpha -- the 22nd named storm of this extraordinary season -- developed in the Caribbean.

It broke the Atlantic hurricane season activity record set in 1933 and marked the first time forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to the Greek alphabet.

''It's mind-boggling . . .,'' said David Nolan, a University of Miami meteorology professor. ``We're now in the same state of shock -- or exasperation -- as anyone.''

Said Ben Nelson, the state meteorologist: ``We never thought we would ever, in our wildest season, go all the way down the list.''

Alpha was expected to drop torrents of flooding rain over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands, then turn out to sea and not threaten the mainland.

In the end, though, most of the attention still focused on Wilma.

''The time of preparing is rapidly moving into the time of action,'' said Craig Fugate, state emergency management director. ``This is going to be a very large storm.''

Forecasters predicted that Wilma -- which struck the Yucatán as a Category 4 storm Friday and then lingered there Saturday -- would slice through Florida as a major Category 3 hurricane, with 115 mph winds.

Its forward speed as it crosses Florida: an impressive 34 mph. That should diminish the danger of widespread flooding because Wilma will be moving so quickly it may not have time to dump abundant rain on any single place.

Still, up to 12 inches of rain could fall on some areas and Wilma's wind field was expected to expand, covering an enormous area.

Sustained tropical storm winds of 39 to 74 mph could reach the Keys by this afternoon and much of the lower peninsula -- including Miami-Dade and Broward counties -- by midnight.

It was much worse -- unimaginably worse -- in the Yucatán, as Wilma all but stalled in place, repeatedly pounding high-rise hotels and other facilities in heavily developed tourist areas.

A representative of Cancún General Hospital told the Mexican press that two people died from heart attacks and a 40-year-old man was killed when a tree fell on him as he stepped from his house. Seven other people were seriously injured when a gas tank exploded in Playa del Carmen.

Felix González Cantu, the governor of Quintana Roo state, said schools, hospitals, hotels and highways were substantially damaged. He called it ``a level of destruction without precedent.''

Particular concern was expressed for the residents of Cozumel island, hammered by the storm's core. Only half of the 150,000 people there heeded evacuation orders.

In Cancún, hundreds of tourists had to be rescued from their refuge at a gymnasium after the roof blew away.

The headline in the newspaper Diario de Yucatán: ``A Long Nightmare.''

In Cuba, there were no reports of casualties, but at least four tornadoes tore through western towns, tearing roofs off homes, the state media reported. The number of evacuated rose above 500,000 and heavy rainfall kept people from returning to their homes.

''It rained hard and, all of a sudden, the sky was so dark it looked like nighttime,'' René González of Calderón told the Cuban newspaper Granma, referring to a tornado that swept past his neighborhood.

Back in Florida, forecasters urged residents not to focus on the skinny black line that runs through the center of the cone of probability. Any area along the Gulf Coast from Clearwater through Key West could be struck by Wilma's core, they said.

Florida Power & Light mustered extra repair crews in Miami and lined up out-of-state crews in Orlando, according to a spokesman. BellSouth said it was ready.

Around the region:

• In Broward, Mayor Kristin Jacobs declared a local state of emergency. An evacuation order for all residents of mobile homes will be issued at noon today. Heavy rain early Saturday already flooded many parts of eastern Broward.

• In Miami-Dade, Alvarez declared a local state of emergency and called for the mandatory evacuation of residents living in mobile homes and the voluntary evacuation of residents living in low-lying areas. Some shelters are likely to open today.

• In the Keys, officials ordered a phased mandatory evacuation of all residents. The Key West airport closed. The Navy told more than 8,000 military personnel, federal workers and dependents to immediately leave for Orlando and elsewhere.

Forecasters warned that a five- to eight-foot storm surge -- the dome of seawater that accompanies a hurricane ashore -- could wash over U.S. 1 early Monday. That would sever the only highway link between the chain of islands.

• Along the southwest coast, about 70,000 people were subject to evacuation orders in Naples and the rest of Collier County. Mandatory evacuations began in Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Myers Beach and Bonita Beach, affecting an estimated 12,000 people in Lee County.

Most restaurants and shops in Naples' historic, upscale downtown were boarded up, and just a handful of people walked the streets -- through hot, muggy, overcast pre-hurricane weather.

Some said they were worried about storm surge but would not evacuate if Wilma proved to be a low-category hurricane.

''We're not taking it lightly at all,'' said Charlie O'Bannon, 52, sipping a Budweiser on Naples' busy fishing pier. ``But we think we can handle anything below a Category Four.''

That could prove to be a mistake.

Forecasters cannot offer a guarantee about the intensity of an approaching storm, and Wilma already has shown itself to be capricious and capable of enormous destruction.

Soon, they said, it will move away from Mexico and catch a fast ride aboard that cold front heading toward Florida.

The storm's rain bands were expected to arrive with increasing frequency today.

And, after all was said and done, Wilma appeared to be on the way.

At the entrance to Key West, this message flashed on a hotel billboard: ``Go Home Wilma, Fred is Waiting for You.''

Herald staff writers Peter Bailey, Cara Buckley, Marc Caputo, Christina Hoag and Phil Long contributed to this report, as did Knight-Ridder correspondent Susana Hayward in Mérida, Mexico.