another new low, page-53

Rev from sales = $267m @ av $55.62 mlb
Costs av $35mlb = $245m
Int. on current drawdown $141m = $8.5 mill p.a

= Gross profit at say $13.5 million

PE of about 81 on "income only" basis

PDN also have $550mill in convertable bonds out to 2015


Looking forward:

Production of 10Mlb is well advanced in regards to process design and capability estimation. The study is set to be completed in the December 2011 quarter.

10mlb assuming 70% sale rate and $60mlb

Revenue $420mill p.a
costs $260mill p.a assume a drop in costs to around $26
Interest cover on $141m = $8.5mill

Gross profit say $150 million p.a

PE of around 7 at $1.25 per share

Doesnt allow for stage 4 costs to establish however.

On a forward looking basis you could debate they are undervalued perhaps.

Target price in 12 months - $2.25
Target price once stage 4 complete - $3.70

Subject to commissioning/ build costs

Havent included $550mill in convert notes into equation or other income from other areas or incidental costs.


very rough and quick calcs....

but at current levels PE still looks high.....unfortunately

On forward looking basis could say its low or about right given risk of lower U prices, costs to expand, timeline,sustainability, then need to look at overall real value of the mine itself into equation/ risk etc.