Interesting that we keep going through these same cycles of...

Interesting that we keep going through these same cycles of discussion here over a number of years. What are the generating efficiencies, and even more, what is the cost of energy in terms of $ /MWh for each of the wave converter devices? Commercial stage designs are never final or complete before there are new ideas to be incorporated. The WestWave and WaveHub projects were specifically intended to force such comparisons and to precipitate commercial models.

In 2013 CWE feared that it was going to be left behind and increased its design (1MW CETO 6) output without knowing precisely how to do it, other than by scaling up. If you read and count their multiple references to ‘commencing in 2013’ it is obvious that CWE were /are attempting to backdate their ‘expertise’. It certainly helped to get their berth at WaveHub. All statements that companies and government organisations make need to be interpreted. The un-designed CETO 6 is now their commercial model! (This also helps to explain the delays with CETO 5 deployment.)

The present global situation is that instead of getting to the point of making comparisons between devices, companies are already eliminating themselves by assessing their costs relative to other renewable generation. It could be said that their financial backers are making those decisions for them by withdrawing support. Countering those awful prospects governments instantly issue panic statements such as Scottish Power: “Ah, but we will set up a new government body.” To do what? Wave a magic WEC wand? Success comes only by hard work and funding.

What it at least demonstrates is that wave power is not cheap particularly considering that wind and solar have come down dramatically in their cost curves over the last five years. From time to time wave of the hand arguments are made by CEOs (including MO) that their devices will be competitive with wind “at scale”. What scale is that?

To justify the high capital outlay, once a particular WEC design is ‘finalised’ its power generating capacity has to be maximised by utilisation in high energy wave fields. There is no commercial future in considering competing in low price energy regimes such as Australia or in the calm seas around Indonesian islands. The appropriate regions to aim at is where healthy FiTs incentives are offered, such as the ~$500 / MWh in UK and where mean wave heights are significant. If this cannot work for CWE then nowhere else will either. Note that Pelamis and Aquamarine operate there and are still having major financial difficulties. Major cost reductions for CWE are essential for survival but this may take many years.

The PWEP is simply the in-house project to test and iron out problems before the real demonstration to the world markets.

Don’t fall in love without counting the cost.

Juke