weightlifter you are misrepresenting K's statement pure and...

weightlifter you are misrepresenting K's statement pure and simple. If KARICOUM had said that SPPs have a higher incidence around October than any other month I would agree and have no problem with that statement, but that is not what he said. He said plainly word for word the following:

"each year POH has done a SPP it has been around October"

that cannot be reinterpreted to mean POH does SPP's in October more than any other month. The statements are completely different. Your grade school understanding of statistics is also obvious.

You are lumping Oct and Nov together and then treating May and April as separate. You can't compare a two month period to a one month period and say the two month period occurs far, far more often. Of course it would! there is twice the chance that a random event would occur in a 60 day period than a 30 day period.

Following your analysis then, the Oct/Nov period occurs 3 times and the April/May twice. So Oct/Nov has a higher incidence (not far, far higher) . However that is a moot point anyway because that is not K's argument, his argument is that every time POH does a cap raising it is around October, that is simply untrue.


Furthermore, we are talking about 7 instances, anyone who knows anything about statistics knows that a sample size of 7 is far too few to conduct a test of statistical significance.

Put another way, even if the capital raising happened 6 times out of 7 in October, statistically that proves absolutely nothing because the sample size is simply too small.

Next time you see an economist on the TV claiming that because x happened 7 times in the last 10 recessions therefore it will probably happen again you know the guy is talking through his hat and doesn't understand statistics.