wl, it is difficult to fathom that someone would continue to...

wl, it is difficult to fathom that someone would continue to defend the argument you are trying to make.

You are being worse than selective, you have actually reinterpreted K's statement in a completely different manner to argue your point. This is a classic 'straw man' argument.

If K had made the observation that POH does cap raisings more often in the month of October or around October I wouldn't be arguing at all, I would not have even made a comment. But that is clearly not K's position which he himself acknowledged in his last comment on this thread. Please read this carefully wl:

"each year POH has done a SPP it has been around October"

K is claiming that every year that POH did a cap raising it has been around October. That is simply, unequivocally false and can no way be supported by data which is publicly available for all here to check.

Furthermore there is no selectivity on my part. I checked every year since 1999 and there have been a total of 7 cap raisings, I couldn't find anymore, maybe I missed one, so please point it out if I did.

"oct has been found to be up to 3 times more relevant to the discussion than that of any other month"

Once again, incorrect, Oct has two incidences, it has twice as many as any other month and once again from a statistical point of view does not make it any more relevant than any other month given the small size of the sample.

"Oct/nov has a 8.33% hit factor in the 7 years (you chose) as opposed to 2.77% factor for the other months and 0% for the months not touched on at all"

Once again you are making the mistake of comparing a two month period to a one month period, that is not a valid comparison. If you want to compare the 2 month period of Oct/Nov to periods of only one month, you have start off by acknowledging that the probability of an SPP occurring in the Oct/Nov period would already be twice as high as any other single month.

"8.33% represents a factor of 3 against the other months, thus giving it a far far far higher chance of SPP than any other month as per the history you chose to rely on"

Again wrong, you continue to make a false a comparison. Furthermore the fact that 2 out 7 SPP's have occurred in October or 3 out of 7 have occurred in Oct/Nov has no predictive power whatsoever.

If an analyst appeared on TV and said that October was the worst month for the stockmarket twice in the last 7 years and then said, thus October is more likely to be the worst month this year he would be laughed off the stage and rightfully so.

But again, even if all your reasoning were correct (which it clearly is not) it is all in vain because you are arguing a point that KARICOUM never made.


"you cant argue with the maths"

Yes I can because your maths is riddled with errors.