Point being that already everyone is finding reason that the decline is now over. This reminds me of the Dow theory primary trend change that occurred on November 21st. I wrote then that the markets happened to be making a short-term low and that a rally was due. I stated in several public interviews and postings at that time that once the rally I was expecting began, it would cause this Dow theory primary trend change to be questioned, and this is precisely what happened. Within days everyone was saying for one reason or another that the Dow theory signal wasn’t valid. Plus, the Fed even cut rates in early December. But that rate cut didn’t work and the Dow theory primary trend change proved correct as the market moved lower into the new year.
I can tell you now that at this time there is absolutely no evidence that the decline into the 4-year cycle is over. I can also tell you that the decline into that low will be accompanied by rallies along the way. I can also assure you that as each one of these rallies unfolds, the talking heads and “analysts” that have been wrong about the Dow theory signal and the extended 4-year cycle will find reason that the decline is over. Ask yourself a few simple questions. Did you hear on TV or the talking heads from Wall Street that the market had topped in 2000? Did anyone tell you that the decline out of the 2000 top would take the Industrials down by over 4,500 points to violate the 1998 4-year cycle low? Do you not remember being told as the decline into the 2002 low began that we were not in a recession and that we had not begun a bear market? Were you told that everything was okay as the market turned down this past October? Were you not reassured that the decline was over in November and again in December? Are we not beginning to hear the same thing now?
Well, I did in fact say that the decline into the 2002 low would violate the 1998 low and this is in print. I have also stated publicly that the advance up out of the 2002 low has been a very extend 4-year cycle and that neither the 2006 nor the 2007 lows qualified as having marked a 4-year cycle low. I have also had buy signals at each of the turn ups as this cycle stretched further and further. I’m now telling you that the dust has not settled and that the bear has a few more tricks up his sleeve. You have been warned once again!
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