another update now out, page-15

You gotta point or two here,

Given the current state of the nickel cobalt and acid markets why would you not wait until production and total cash cost are confirmed by CMR? Sure i know about the sulphide value and uranium but the possibility of an underperforming or delayed ~$133M plant (net) is worrying and puts a high risk on this for me. Too high.

Second the cobalt, $50/lb out to 2011!!......Some big calls (FOMCLOL actually)....hows that NPV look at 40,30 or $20/lb???? The only product that is conservative here is the nickel price which represents just 9.1% of the total sale value. Does not pass the sniff and smell test.

Below is a post i put up on the CDU thread a while back on the cobalt market. Yes it could spike to levels above $50/lb but imo has the same risks for similar spikes south and i mean more in line with the nickel price

Trade only at your risk,

RE: Cobalt
Post: 3049669 (CDU thread)
Cobalts a small market ~60ktpa concentrated in small number of producers and regions so yes possibilities of a spike are there. However looking at the potential supply side (which Richard Reinhard omits or maybe edited for subscribers….) from the Congo and Zambia is concerning for the market.

The congo on its own has roughly one third of know Cobalt resources and the largest project Tenke to come on stream next year. Not the best place in Africa I know but with further stability or unrest the congo will have significant say in future prices.

I have listed some up and coming projects below. This is not in anyways complete, just ones I know from the industry. You could add Goro and Ramu (possibly) to this list as well.

Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt (Freeport) project scheduled 2009 start up in the Congo.
Potentially the largest Cobalt mine in the world…..ever.
Project output will be 115,000 t/y of LME Grade A copper cathode and 10,000 t/y Cobalt initially….

http://www.caledoniamining.com/nam1.php
Nama Project Zambia
Caledonia is proceeding with detailed mine planning and is targeting commencement of production by early 2009 at an expected annual production level of 10,000 tonnes of cobalt metal. Also the largest mine again ever...

Metorex Ruashi project
Production will ramp up to 45,000 tonnes of copper and 3,500 tonnes of cobalt over six months.
http://www.metorexgroup.com/downloads/announcements/2008-0414_Announc-RuashiCuCathode.pdf

China Railway To Form Congo JV To Develop Copper,Cobalt Mines
http://www.chinamining.org/Investment/2008-04-23/1208930467d13202.html