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I don't think there is too much correlation between the two -...

  1. 631 Posts.
    I don't think there is too much correlation between the two - its not quite rational, but IMHO that's the way it is.

    House prices in parts of Australia are yielding 3% rent or so - and the more asset prices increase, the more the yield decreases. I buy NOTHING on a 30 - 50 year payback...

    The rent paid buy tenants can't increase in step, as this money would need to come from wages - which are absolutely on the decline... and no bank will sustainably lend a tenant rent money...

    This leaves the balance of house investment returns coming from capital appreciation - of which greater than CPI is simply unsustainable over time [again, where does the money come from?] - unless we all subscribe to the 'bigger fool' theory - which, if true, effectively makes the Australian housing market one huge government backed ponzi scheme... they havent had happy endings yet ... ever ...

    Commercial tenants are meanwhile paying 8% - 9% yields on office properties. Yet, its commercial that has had its face value punished... even though the tenant is of better quality and longevity - not to mention much more sound operational KPIs !

    I guess banks may place a massive risk premium reduction on the emotional capital that owners invest in their caves.

    Nope, I don't see the link between commercial and residential... wish there were though - that would seriously boost REIT values IMHO!
 
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