Hi
@pe981! I enjoyed out last back and forth some years ago! You think logically and raise good points. So lets do it again!!
Firstly, I am bullish! And yes, I have some cognitive bias. But lets look at some facts.
Assets are back by mining licences along with infrastructure contracts, off take agreements as well as the connections to ensure this project comes to life (ie funds via PPP/EPC contracts). All three allows for over 125MT of IO PA to be pulled from the earth and shipped to China (along with some staying in country to be processed). As we know a few have tried before and failed.
So what do the company own:
Lets look at the
mining licences - Do some research and look into both
Sangha Mining Development SASU and
Cameroon Mining Company SARL. Both of these companies have the ML for each state respectively. When researching, you will see ownership belonging to both Bestway Finance Limited and Coconut Logic (along with 10% for each state). Now do some research and see who owns both of these companies. Whomever that is, is in a very lucrative position. Over 125MT of IO PA (at a minimum). With 1 x confirmed off-take agreement worth 5 billion PA (based off 50MTPA). And potentially a second OT agreement worth another 5 billion PA. 10B PA over 50 years... All of these figures are USD and ex infrastructure earnings.
There is plenty of additional IO just off the proposed rail line. We can surmise that whomever has these ML (via the above two companies) will potentially have access to these ML and therefore additional IO. Therefore adding more value for the project.
These is added value with the China and Australian tensions. China need these African deals to progress (although our useless PM Albo is trying to ease these tension) but his absolutely incompetence is a chat for another day.
Now the off-takers - Tsingshan International (Michael Ma - IMO a very important person in all these dealings) are the 1 x confirmed OT and Tsinghan makes over 40 Billion USD PA and the second unconfirmed (at this stage) OT makes 80+ Billion USD PA. Now these OT's have locked in IO at just below $80USD PT for the next 10 years (Today - IO at $136 - that is over a 2.8billion per year for each OT). That is an eye watering savings for a each companies (and Chain via an SOE).
So as mentioned these ML are very valuable. We just need to do some research and see who actually owns them... **insert answer here**
We also need to examine uncertainty around the ML - that being SDL and their multiple cases with the ICC + pre discovery (not a case as such). We have discussed this previously and my views have not changed (no case - SDL are useless, had 10+ years and couldn't arrange a chook raffle, the ICC is a toothless tiger with very little power ect ect).
Okay - now lets look at the
infrastructure - We know who is coordinating this via a consortium of EPC contractors. As you mentioned it is a very costly project but will be profitable in years to come. We know little about the financing at this point, apart from the company working on 'completing the debt financing component for the overall project'.
These contractors would not be needed if there was no access to IO via these ML and OT agreements (guarantee viability for the project as a whole) and there would be no need to coordinate/arrange a consortium. We have seen the list of the companies and there are some heavy hitters there.
So therefor I not believe ANS will be 'gifted' a share but ultimately earn a percentage for all the above reasons.
So there is a definitely a value there for the company. What will that value be, I have no idea but I have posted my calculations on this thread based of: off-take agreements, underwriters looking at near term value (multiple figures based of how the underwriters look at near term value) and guesstimating a few points like what % the company earn ect.
Why was this company selected - IMO right place right time.
Yes there are still uncertainties, but IMO the future looks bright for LTSH via potentially a new company that will list in Hong Kong or Singapore (Aus very very unlikely if not impossible).
There is plenty of cream for all with this project. I just think it is now a question of how much cream for SH.
Looking forward to your response
ps - sorry about the grammar - had to post this on the run.
