Interesting but not surprising responses to my posts and I guess...

Interesting but not surprising responses to my posts and I guess I can be happy I didn't get attacked by the resident ANS VI !!
I am a bit bemused by the comments about the big picture?
The big picture is easy to see, it is the nitty gritty of how it will impact ANS retail holders that is in the fog!
I am sure most on here know the mountains of research and comments posted going back many years by some posters on the SDL threads. The African IO tenements are no secret and clearly the Chinese have been playing the long game as they have marched inexorably onward to get access to those tenements.
I am simply pointing out exposed information to counter the rife speculation rampant on here.
@MWR8 I will paraphrase your points and try and respond as succinctly as possible:-
Confirmation bias - Yes, I understand and I do understand why most will just ignore what I write. I also understand that the majority of holders in ANS/PDY would have invested for the prospects of the Mid West IO and Oakajee Port etc with many no doubt relegated to the bottom drawer.
The veer off to become a major player in the African IO province heralds a potential significant change of fortune and I am sure is like a dream come true, without even being asked to put a cent in, so yes my comments are probably unwelcome as others who have urged caution have been!!!
Mining Licenses, Off Takes - Agreed, never in dispute, highly valuable and should make a lot of money for some. Re Sangha, Cameroon Mining, Bestway et al - My point exactly - ANS (the company) is not included regardless of actual people involved.
Maybe ANS will get a cut of the overall project, I don't know, but at this stage that is pure speculation.
Mining Licenses and SDL - Not sure how this will play out but not something I have put much weight on. My initial thoughts (way back) were that the Chinese would have a contingency to cover any compensation just to get on with it, but I do think it is fair to suggest they have structured the various agreements to make it hard for SDL (I totally agree their incompetence won't help their case - they had already lost the infrastructure, although to be fair the whole project was only ever going to happen when the Chinese wanted it to - anyone see a pattern here)
(Of course things like Ding losing his phone does start making it sound like a Get Smart episode............)
"Okay - now lets look at the infrastructure - We know who is coordinating this via a consortium of EPC contractors. As you mentioned it is a very costly project but will be profitable in years to come. We know little about the financing at this point, apart from the company working on 'completing the debt financing component for the overall project'."
Ah ha, we get to my whole point. This is the only confirmed area ANS (the Company) has a direct involvement. Yes we don't know how it will be financed but this infrastructure will require in excess of $10bn and I was simply pointing out that ANS has nothing to support that kind of project. Whether finance comes outside of ANS and dilutes ANS share of the project or the finance is funneled through ANS which dilutes shareholders is largely irrelevant. The finance will no doubt have a debt and equity component and partners such as ANS may well have to raise funds to contribute at least part.
I may be a bit negative on these type of infrastructure projects because it is too easy to run into problems and necessitate change of ownership. Contracts and financing also need to include significant margin for overruns or shareholders can easily be diluted out with calls for more capital not able to be met.
I don't like these hugely capital intensive projects. Too easy for big money.......
The main asset ANS has (in regard this project) is the rights to this infrastructure regardless of what Ding may be doing in coordination / management and as I have said it had previously been suggested that these rights could be sold. But what are they worth? That would be a good start to valuing ANS at this moment.
Why ANS - I have been consistent from the very start that the whole ANS / SDL (along with the newly formed but imaginatively named WAPR) deal was about control. The deal itself and subsequent variants was very thin on detail and rather contrived. I believe they needed an Australian company to get in bed with SDL and ensure control of both entities to progress this project.
ANS was a good option as it was an IO minnow which was basically dormant and going nowhere (still smarting after previous shenanigans).
Not sure if plan was worked out exactly but it gave them options, either ANS could imbed itself in SDL (Ding certainly seemed to be taking control organising the consortium) or in the event something happened, ANS could be a convenient back up (and dare I say sacrificial if necessary, oops!). Remember all the excuses why the mythical $100m was never sent
I do agree that they ensured ANS would not be involved in the MLs to neutralise part of the SDL arguments and of course new companies such as Sangha appeared on the scene to mop up those very licences.
"Yes there are still uncertainties, but IMO the future looks bright for LTSH via potentially a new company that will list in Hong Kong or Singapore"
This appears to be the main point holders are hanging their hat on and where all these percentage valuations come from!?
A new consortium company that will include ANS! I have no idea what the prospects of this are however at this stage it is pure speculation and underlines my questions how anyone is coming up with an SP of 20c which values ANS @ over $1bn right now
I have seen suggestions a number of times that Ding is the master Puppeteer controlling all these Chinese SOEs which is why ANS will be well rewarded. It is very hard to work out how much power Ding actually has.
He has certainly been involved, but an all power maestro may be over egging it a touch.
I have no doubt he will be well rewarded for his efforts and some will flow through to ANS, but how much is the real question.
(If it ends up a lot of money, trust me it is a gift to retail holders)
I have no ill will to ANS holders and hope it all works out for you however I just think some balance needs to be posted when we suddenly have an apparently accepted value for the company over $1bn in the "here and now", based on what might happen (which appears to me some are trying to take advantage of)
Others may have additional inside information which may clarify some of the questions.
I certainly do not have any more info than anyone else, just learned over many years that when investing (particularly at this end of the market) you must take things at face value, but each to their own.
As I said, good luck to all, I am just an interested observer.
All just my opinion and written with a heavy head after a late Friday night so no doubt may contain rubbish (getting too old for this) ...........