ANS : will we fold or fly?, page-329

Hi Mr Prartor,

I like the calculations and I think long term we can reach some pretty impressive numbers for SH. I am just thinking out loud and am going to add a few points to the calculations. Let's have some more fun haha:
1. IO was trading between $170 and $88 per/ton last FY. Our off-taker price is just below $80 per/ton. I would average it out at approx 30%-40%. So lets take 40% off that $9.60 figure. New figure $5.76
2. Wages costs - will be much lower in Africa as will operating costs. Ball park 50% cheaper (at a minimum, I think think will be even more) so lets add 50% onto our new figure. New figure at $8.64.
3. BHP has goodwill in their SP. I would say 20% (at a minimum) so we will knock that off the new price. New price $7.04.

I think this is easily achievable (and some) once mining! Like you said, there is a scope for expansion and a lot more IO to be pulled from the earth.

You are also right re: the 5.7B shares floating around. With this amount of shares, for our SP to reach that magic $1 figure we need a valuation at over $5 billion. IMO very unlikely. $0.75 would be very very nice but i think we will be in that 0.20-0.30 range. I can't see a JP Morgan or KMPG valuing the company that high... I think this would only be achievable only if:
a. the $10B was in ANS's bank (unlikely) OR
b. Ding can show the tenements are ANS's. Then we would be looking well over that $1 range IMO. I do think this is a possibility...

There are so many questions and unknown features of this deal. It makes my head spin when I play each possible scenario out in my head.

All in all I am excited for the next announcement!