ANS : will we fold or fly?, page-53

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Praetor

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28/03/21

10:30

Post #: 52091665
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Originally posted by bruceleroy: ↑

Been scouring Google for clues since brekkie. BTW, I can't find any French story about the Sangha signing. Did come across a Chinese company going full bore in ramping up iron ore production in Sierra Leone.

Seems like China is on a no-nonsense African mission to achieve self sufficiency and supply security as reuters says. What caught my eyes is China wants these mines to be shipping first ore by 2025 which rules out Simandou.

Anyhow, 2 ways we can benefit from this China African strategy. One is Ding who clobbered together such heavy hitters in 2018 must be party to the Sangha French syndicate or Congo returns the licenses to the 3 companies as incentive for China to fund the big build immediately.

Rough calculation yields aggregate production tonnage including the mines in Cameroon and **on to be at least 170 MT annually. Together with the 4 Simandou blocks (some say as much as 250 MTA), that's a total of 420MTA of volume.

If China can pull off 2 Pilbara killers at once, they can unleash such an excess supply onto the seaborne market to keep iron ore price at $40 or lower indefinitely given the exponential effect of price vs supply.

I can appreciate why Avima as first mover is demanding such a hefty compo. Congo has no leg to stand on and will have to hand back all 3 licenses after 2 years of acrimonious litigation to the detriment of the entire region.

In Ding we trust. Fingers crossed !

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ANS Price at posting: 1.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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ANS : will we fold or fly?, page-53

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