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If they are debt free as your calcs suggest, then its a no brainer on a valuation basis ($90mil of 2P reserves vs $66mil MC)
The illiquidity kills it for most traders so I have to admit it will remain undervalued until some decent drilling occurs (CB drilling commencing March qtr)
I recently asked Tino if they would farmdown Bazzard and the respose was
No farmdown, no equity raising, easily funded from CB cashflow. They are confident about the prospect so I guess we're talking around 20+% POS ?
I made a mistake in my previous post, current production is more like 2500bopd and perhaps declining to ~2000bopd going by STU's 2008FY production forecast of 525-575kbo
I wont be backing up the truck like I did with COE at 45c 12 months ago, but will slowly accumulate on dips (plenty of time to get set for Bazzard)
Assuming Bazzard target reserves of P50 40mmbbls, NPV20/brl ,15% POS, risked value is 84cps and unrisked $5.50/sh
All things being equal, a move to $1.50 pre spud looks very doable then if there are good hydrocarbon shows......
In the meantime STU will remain boring for a few months
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