My analysis has been that if Tullow are not allowed to vote...

My analysis has been that if Tullow are not allowed to vote their shares, it would be easier for them to have a vote of 75% of at least 50% of shares (a condition of an SOA) - due to the fact that 20-40% of shareholders will not vote out of apathy.

If they are allowed to vote - i imagine that they would be buying.

The one thing that we can say for sure is that Tullow must have less than 5% of shares. Merrill Lynch probably put Tullow up to thinking of a bid as a way to rescue the punters that they tipped into the placement.