Antinomy price going up is fine, but as new supply comes onboard...

Antinomy price going up is fine, but as new supply comes onboard the price will stabilise (and likely will fall). When you have high prices the objective is to get to production ASAP (meaning you do your drills, get your MRE and feasibility studies, get your approvals and get construction going assuming you have an economic deposit - right now TMG is probably two to three years of getting to production from now - assuming it can define an economic resource through drilling by say end of this year etc etc).

The key to TMG's SP is the market IMO is saying IMO ""things are happening a little slow for my liking and in terms of the development queue (assuming it has an economic deposit which is yet to be established) it is behind x, y and z"".

At the moment my gut feel is people on here are largely short term traders making money on the hype of say LRV and others and obviously movements in the antinomy price (noting LRV is quite ahead of TMG on the development queue front). The SP here is been driven by TA, as the FA news to assess the deposit is a little slow, but seems to me they are taking it slow to ensure they evaluate the deposit thoroughly, however there is a fine line balance when it comes to taking advantage of an emerging market and one aspect of that is ensuring you particularly understand where your potential place in the development queue is and that means understanding what potential suppliers are up to as well (rather than living in a vacuum).

Just to take this further - just have to look at spodumene prices to see what happens when you have producers in the market and explorers seeking to get to production. PLS made a motza from 2021 - 2023 due to high spodumene prices but as other supplies came to market prices fell. Now antinomy prices are sky high and those who scramble into production first will reap the highest rewards (using PLS have a look at the cash balance it has).

The US listing on the OTC might help focus if TMG can grab the attention of US investors, and hopefully that also means gaining direction, noting it is not actually been listed on the US market itself (been the Dow as TMG is to be listed on the OTC only).

There is a lot to like here, but getting a drill in the ground needs to be done quicker than what I suspect they are planning to do here. I think they are after the perfect drill hole and that involves a lot of luck anyway. The below picture goes into further explanation around signatures as EMs is part of a wider exploration type method for identifying targets. You generally try to complement EM results with some form of soil sampling or other low cost exploration method. And in identifying your 'host' type you need to gauge both the conductivity and resistivity to come to a viewpoint. However, exploration techniques are not full proof, because if they were you would never have failed drilling and a we know you can across a host of ASX exploration results to know failed drilling happens a lot.


From the above in EM techniques look at conductivity. A key comment is surveys, whilst can pinpoint rock types, cannot actually tell you the extent of mineralisation with what you are seeking (obviously).
pp1802n.pdf (usgs.gov)Higher Siemen readings of 10,000 plus will be your sulphides per se. I am not sure where the host rock for antinomy sits in this (might do some further analysis/reading on this if I get some time).

I see this a s a long term hold only, to be reassessed as drilling data comes in.


All IMO