16 August, 2024Critical MineralsWRITTEN BY Oliver GrayAll aboard the antimony trainA fair share of commodities have had their fair share of time in the sun this year. Uranium, for example, made headlines earlier this year thanks to steep price rise. Gold enjoyed the same treatment in June when it hit an all-time high. Now, it could be antimony’s turn.A regular feature on the critical minerals lists of many countries, including Australia, antimony is used in the electronics industry to produce some semiconductor devices, such as infrared detectors and diodes. It can also be alloyed with lead and other metals to improve their strength, and has applications in batteries, ammunition, paints, and flame-retardant materials.The price of the metal has been gaining traction for some months as demand outstrips supply, causing a broad deficit with little sign of relenting. Such a scenario has also underscored the West’s supply chain vulnerability and the need to rely on major producer China — which produced 48% of the world’s antimony last year — for key minerals.Antimony ingots in China climbed to 127,500 yuan ($26,807) per tonne at the end of May — a 56% increase since the start of 2024 — according to data from the Shanghai Metals Exchange. Europeanprices, meanwhile, rose to $31,689 — a 75% increase.Chinese investment bank CICC said in a note at the time that declining ore grades and depleting mines were putting the squeeze on antimony supply.Many operations in Russia — the world’s fifth-largest antimony producer, accounting for 24% of global supply in 2023 — have been disrupted by Western sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.But antimony prices could be about to get a second wind, following China’s decision to restrict exports of the metal from mid-September.“Given we are still at record prices, it’s likely that prices will go even higher with this announcement,”Chetan Soni, an analyst at London-based consultancy CRU, said. Soni also noted that prices could surpass $45,000 as buyers look to secure material for future production or stockpiling.The announcement comes, predictably, in the name of national security, as China seeks to restrict shipments of critical minerals for which it is the dominant supplier.“China has already been cutting down on metal exports as they are consuming it all domestically,”Jack Bedder, co-founder of market researcher Project Blue, says. Project Blue had estimated the supply deficit at more than 10,000 tonnes in May.Still, the current climate presents an opportunity for smaller producing nations to fill the gap. Myanmar, for example, produced 4,600 tonnes in 2023, whileTürkiye produced 6,000 tonnes and Tajikistan produced more than 21,000 tonnes.“The prospects of a small but antimony-rich country, Tajikistan, look good now,” Alexey Kabanov, CEO of Swiss-based trading firm Voyager Group, toldReuters.Write to Oliver Gray at Mining.com.au
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