Antimony, page-232

I agree @NavyDiver, that's a critical takeaway from that article. To be clear on my position, LRV remains a buy for me at this price despite my entry at 9c, but the antimony SUPPLY CHAIN is just as important as the finding and mining the resource. So much more so for antimony than your average gold, silver etc

The article also comments that the export ban is on near-pure antimony, so less pure can still be exported. Now, that might raise flags to say that this antimony rally is therefore unfounded, but I don't believe so.... I think that with a lack of refinery capability outside China it really doesn't matter... Nobody else can increase it to 99.99+% anyway

But the upshot here is that there's two key dynamics at play in the LRV investment.

1. Access to antinomy. For us, this is guaranteed as it was mined in the past and there's a JORC resource. The key reason, IMO, that we fired up in value is that as long as we can get our metallurgy right, we are also mining gold. Essentially making a profit off that and the antimony coming in for free. We're not a one trick pony, and the apparent gap between us and mining anything is time and $70m, which could now come from many places indeed, and with reduced dilution risk
2. A buyer. Gold will go to Perth or wherever else, easy. The key question is, where would our antimony go to in order to be refined? How much needs to go to 99.999+% (I would imagine for chips etc) vs 99% (I would imagine for weaponry, etc?). I don't yet know the answer for this, but I think it's critical, and will research later this week. Only China has the refineries and the skills for the hyper pure. This will take the West at least a couple of years to setup, and that's if we had a site, let alone a country agreed. I believe that this news from China, whilst boosting our share price and antimony alike, actually makes it HARDER to get an antimony offtake because nobody OTHER than China was going to buy it in the first place.

This is a really interesting dynamic and I'm not sure how it will pan out.

• China could renege on their decision to ban pure export. Antinomy price drops, but we find ourselves with a clear and present buyer and access to that market. Long term, good news. Bad news for anyone building a refinery outside China.
• China could tighten their purity rules, allowing for even less exports. Antinomy price likely rises, but we're still without refinery options for the hyper pure
• No change to China rules, but we're still a bit stumped for a buyer

In the end, with all the recent conversation and agreements with the USA, it might be that the buyer becomes government representatives and it's stockpiled until it can be refined.

In reality, I'm probably not smart enough to even come up with the outcome let alone guess it. But I am smart enough to understand that there's great potential here, but it's no straight road ahead