If ISIS was taken over...ANP will also be in the firing line...

If ISIS was taken over...ANP will also be in the firing line also...here is a blog from America.




If you say so I'll assume I said that at one point. For a long time I've been using by the end of 2013 so really between today and the end of 2013. If it happens sooner than later I'll do particularly well as I won't have to keep buying new options to extend the time out to the end of 2013.

A Sanofi has the luxury of waiting to see mipo approvals and launches which won't happen for along time and what new data on the Factor XI drug shows will also be important. It's just not a big deal to them to wait and see how things develop and pay even an extra $500M or a billion but have a better idea of where things stand.

Crucial to my huge premium takeover thesis is GSK being there as a second natural acquirer which should ensure the huge premium when Sanofi likely takes us over. While GSK is an obvious potential acquirer particularly with the remarkably good way ISIS has performed on the collaboration and giving them the opportunity to build a rare and severe disease drug franchise from ISIS, they don't have the compelling economics Sanofi has due to mipo and Regulus etc. and the need to defend their antithrombotic franchise already under duress from patent expirations.

So with GSK being out there my thinking is that both ensures the huge premium Sanofi will have to pay and if Sanofi decides it's in its interests to takeover ISIS as I've said, they also have to be thinking that the longer they wait the more chance someone like GSK will jump the gun first. Obviously someone different can make a bid but I think any bid would just prompt Sanofi to make a better offer that will get the job done. I just think a piece of that $9B on their balance sheet will one day end up in ISIS shareholder's pockets.