Hi IJ, Well, it may depend on if it is running this afternoon or...

Hi IJ,

Well, it may depend on if it is running this afternoon or in the Melbourne Cup in 4 months time and if that is all that was written in the form guide. Based on what you have provided above, then clearly your money would be on BAU (and I have some riding), but you generally attempt to invest (not trade) based on future / predicted outcomes - most of the time these are unknown. So, a horse may run poorly today 1st up in a 1200m race, but that was not the target. The horse is being trained for a 2 mile race in 4 months and you make a decision on how you think the horse will perform in the race for which it is set, not how it stacks up today.

All I am saying is that your data is correct (save for the legal unknowns - and they are unknowns), however, you can always present any information you like to reach a desired perception amongst readers - which this post does. What is does not entertain is a myriad of other factors which could set these 2 ponies apart in a future event (a alluded to a few the other day).

Whilst many may not like it, i find having a devils advocate in a forum as an excellent idea. The greatest decisions made by man are not done so alone. We need both favorable input and negative points of view for the best chance of making a good decision. A have made both in the past and many of my worst decisions have often taken place when i wear blinkers - we all do it sometimes, admit it or not.

Enjoy your day.