G'day RIAers.Merry Christmas to all.From a Buy Early Sell before...

G'day RIAers.

Merry Christmas to all.

From a Buy Early Sell before Spud (BESBS) speculator's perspective, I see the recent SP lull as partly expected.

As MrPoshman and others have rightly pointed out, longer-term funding questions hang over RIA. There is still a suspicion among some that a CR will be dropped on us before drilling at CI-202. This is a major deterent to traders. Add to this, many investors take a break during the Christmas/New Year period, and the continuing uncertainty in Europe.

To me, RIA is a bargain. I am no expert and might be proved wrong. Nonetheless, the way I see it is the following:

The reasons to like RIA have not changed:

* The Ivory Coast government have given the approval for RIA to start drilling and have access rights to CI-202.

* While this is all to be confirmed by the drill, plans for delivery of up to 8000 bopd and 100 mmscfd highlight that this project is a big target (company maker) if oil and gas flow as expected.

* This action is near - probably Feb/March at this stage.

* RIA has cash on hand to drill and the SP is within 10% of its annual low.


Christmas/New year investors will return to work shortly, and while Europe won't change quickly, we have seen BESBS movements throughout this era in 2011. The key trigger will be the moment that investors realise that RIA won't raise capital prior to the drill (or at least at a big discount). Each day we get closer to drill without CR, the temptation for traders to jump in will grow bigger due to the dot-points above.
While I'd love RIA management to come out and say that they won't be raising capital prior to drill in Feb/March, I'm happy to risk that traders will work this out a little later as drill gets close.

Time will tell but I've been buying a few at these prices.

Good luck to all holders.





Announcement also confirmed:

* Drill in Mid-February
* Rig organised. GSF Monitor Jack-up rig to be used.


Given some stability across the wider market, this should be a good BESBS play.