any comments on this?, page-2

trader1x,

Great post for informational purposes:

Here are my purely qualitative, subjective and observational pearls of wisdom.

The article aptly refers to a "big question mark" when it comes to Centro.

I actually quite like this even though it sounds ominous and seems to portent something bad.

The reason there is a question mark is because of two reasons:

1. The market and lenders alike when the stabilisation agreement was finalised and the dilution issue came up with CNP implicitly conceded that CNP/CER were/are "Too Big To Fail"

2. Debts were all either extended or rolled over lest the siesmic consequences of administration for teh Centro beast be felt by the market.

THe article also refers to the fact that lenders are essentially "full up" on Commerical Property debt after having assisted REIT's in engorging themselves on the acquisition war path.

Having said that, there is really no "new debt" of which to speak if you really think about it. All of this supposedly (and to make up a word here) "un-rollovera-able debt has actually been rolled over.....for every REIT all over the world last time I checked (escept perhaps RAT and RJT).

The more pertinent question or realisation is this:

How is this possible?

The answer:

It is possible and always has been. The money and the liquidity is there.


If you want some really interesting reading, one of my very first few posts over a year ago was on the Coppock Indicator. This was always on my radar though no-one seemed keep to take it up as a discussion point. Look it up if you like. The indicator has turned. It has never been wrong (to the best of my knowledge).

These are just some of my thoughts on this wet evening in beautiful Sydney.