I sold out of everything a while back except QBE which I kept to...

I sold out of everything a while back except QBE which I kept to hedge my bets. My thinking was that during the worst part of the GFC...from march 08 to Nov 08 QBE rose substantially at a time when everything else was being smashed. I guess the fact that commodities and hence the AUD getting smashed against the USD had something to do with that.

I usually get myself into trouble when I stop looking at the charts and start trying to assess pure fundamental, but nevertheless, my thinking is if there is to be a double dip then commodities will likely be smashed again.....and further, as irrational as it may seem, the USD may enjoy a strong rally against everything because : a. gold has already skyrocketed b. for all it's shortcomings the USD is still the pseudo world currency and c. The USD index chart suggests that the USD may have consolidated at a low in recent months and may break up.

Couple all that with the fact that last year we saw high payouts because of the freakish number of natural disasters. Fotunately a collapsing world economy does not have a direct link to next years weather.

Conclusions : stronger earnings in AUD terms due to a strengthened USD plus a more benign year on the pay out front may help to counter the effects of any global economic meltdown....particularly if QBE's exposure is limited as some have suggested earlier in the thread.

and if I am wrong then there is still that tasty dividend that will cover my multitude of sins until things get better.