MOZ mosaic brands limited

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3.6¢

Thank you. Nice analysis. I have put a lot of money on MOZ. I...

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bobgg

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08/10/21

12:37

Post #: 56659237
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Originally posted by NetDebt: ↑

No problem.

Interesting thing about the notes issue is that the notes provide a very simple arb for smaller shareholders (say, 50k or fewer shares).

For example, those who don't want to increase their exposure to MOZ but don't have a problem with locking their cash up for 12 months, could potentially sell around 48% of their shares (at current price ~$0.66), take up their full entitlement with interest capitalised, and in 12-13 months time could convert to shares. This would effectively leave them with the same number of shares, and although the notes price could flucutate over the coming year it takes senority over ordinary shareholders, and all the while netting them around 8.7 cps (less brokerage).

Of course, if instead of keeping the number of shares constant they wanted to keep the same $value invested, they could apply for 138% of their entitlement. If granted, with interest capitalised their notes (at MOZ share price >$0.606) their number of shares in 12 months would be about 13.22% higher (and even more if the share price is lower).

Personally, I suspect that if retail opens before Christmas then MOZ is in a good position. As this flows through to earnings I would expect the notes to reflect the pent-up value of conversion. With a max price of $0.515, notes have a minimum conversion ratio of 1.94x, which means that a fair value for the notes should be somewhere in the order of (1+r)^n x (1.94 x share price). If MOZ was valued at $100m then on a diluted basis (about 160m shares) their share price would be about $0.625, giving the notes a value of $1.21, plus coupons. The same applied to MOZ at $120m would value the notes at about $1.46, plus coupons.

Of course, DYOR, not advice etc...

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Thank you. Nice analysis.
I have put a lot of money on MOZ. I think it could easily double from here with end of lockdowns.

MOZ Price at posting: 64.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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