MarkieMills"I'm not such a bull on the price of Gas - all that...

MarkieMills

"I'm not such a bull on the price of Gas - all that (fracking) gas is coming on stream everywhere"

I assume you are refering to US shale gas? Which is IMO unlikely to be a major competitor for asian markets. While some export is possible, I would of thought US shale gas will predominantly supply the US domestic market.

At any rate if you look at the exurburance shown by the likes of BG in relation to their Queensland CSG over their other gas plays -including US shale (they describe it as a jewel in their crown, and have stated it would work on oil parity with a poo under $30 USD per barrel)

I am just not convinced that US shale will pose a direct competition to asian LNG markets.

I feel its hard to really determine the demand/supply picture for LNG over the next 5-10 years. But beyond 2020 where Malaysian and Indonesian export starts to become contrained I feel Australian sourced LNG will come into its own.

Very hard to also understand how policy changes in China could drive demand higher. Asia is urbanising, the growing middle classes will want cleaner air to breath. China appears to me to be at least capable of buying as much LNG as Australia can supply. Deals to date would testify to this conclusion.

APLNG is a medium to long term growth provider for Origin -an investors not traders time period IMO.

I also have great faith in King to exploit the Australian dom gas market as well. Origin has lead Queensland CSG from day one IMO. Also lead the monetising of its resourses via what was a very attractive deal with Conoco Phillips.