I had the TERP at $15.23, I also believe we will trade above the TERP once all entitlements are listed.
My thoughts are that the geopolitical, and natural events of the last month have improved the sentiment around the Australian LNG industry in general, as evidenced by SP performance of ORG,STO,WPL etc.
- Japan's future demand for LNG likely higher. Through lost and shut in Nuclear generation capacity.
- Public concern and review across the urbanising Asian nations are likely to delay new Nuclear development in China & India.
- Capex costs for new Nuclear powerstations could be forced higher through heightened engineering requirements around safety.
We also have other events that have drawn attention back to the strategic, secure nature of Australian sourced LNG.
- Higher poo
- Middle east remains inheriently unstable
- A prolonged civil war in Libya
- IOC continue to have issues securing upstream energy supply (BP's current Russian issues)
Individually APLNG has also progressed towards FID of late;
-HOA with Sinopec
-Agreed deferred payment terms with CP
- Achieved EIS approvals
Then we also have the recent NSW retailer aquisitions that I believe the market will come to appreciate as another master stroke by King. It was in all likihood the last chance to acquire scale through energy privitisation.
Plenty of positives behind ORG, story is progressing well.
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