any possible negatives, page-4

Okay, on a more serious note we can discuss some of the facts that have been largely ignored or dimissed to date.

Firstly – disclosure. I own roughly half a million shares. I sold down half my holdings in ADO during the last spike at around 8cents and am hoping to reduce my holding again in the short term if there is a large spike without any news, or if there is another minor signing with a bead manufacturer.

1. DOMINO THEORY
I have often read in these forums that we just need 'one' company to sign, and then the rest will fall in line, just like a row of dominos.

Well we've had not one but two companies sign up. Bangs signed up TWO YEARS AGO. Then ADO signed Merck Chimie SAS, part of the AUD$11.2 billion Merck Group which has operations in 64 countries. Where are the rest of the dominos? It's been about 18 months since Merck signed on.

2. ADO has been 'tightly held' by the Directors/Board indicating strong management belief in the foundations of the company.

This is largely true, except for the inconvenient Chairman James Henderson and Transocean Securities who have sold down a few million shares. This inconvenient fact has often been dismissed quite easily by many in this forum, with convenient assumptions made to account for it. But the fact remains, a former Chairman sold down significant volumes. HOw about this as a topic of discussion - "Would the former Chairman really be willing to forgo ADO’s multi-bagging potential that is treated by many in this forum as almost a forum is a forgone conclusion?" Do we really believe that the immediate former Chairman would be willing to drop a few million shares if ADO was such a sure thing?

3. THE next big company making signing is ‘just around the corner.’

It's been more than two years since the first signing.

4. No news is good news

Most of the up beat language used in presentations and press releases have been conveniently put out in the lead up to the conversion of shares by directors. Of course, now that the company has sufficient cashflow for the short term, we have hardly heard a peep.

4. The glass is always half full

Every time there is an upward spike in the share price, there’s a speculation all ‘round about all the good things that may come. But when the share price is falling, it seems awfully quiet.

As noreen highlighted earlier, the share price has been down 13 of the last 16 trading days from .078 to .070 today. There was also a last minute dump this afternoon, which though small was enough to ensure it closed in the red. Of course, we don’t have many posts about ‘how low can it go’ do we? Seeing that noreen was just pretty much ignored after her post is pretty much sums up the attitude in this forum as a ‘glass half full’ one.

Of course, being a glass half full forum, lets save our energy for the backslapping needed after the next upward spike.


These are only a few of the red flags that have been largely dismissed or ignored… convenient assumptions have often been made to ignore inconvenient facts. Rather than ignoring facts and looking for anything to support the view you want to hear, how about a more constructive discussion on:
• The potential limitations of the product?
• Other proven established alternatives on the market?
• Other products in development that might be better or more clearly derisked?
• The impact on the share price if after more than 18th months since the last signing, we only see another small deal with a minor bead manufacturer?
• How sometimes, better products don’t win out. E.g. Betamax and VHS.