any prediction, page-34

bts111,

Wanty isn't down ramping IMO, just being realistic.

Anyone who feels this is a sure thing is beng overly optimistic (and may have overcommitted themselves!) and should question why they invest in the market.

The chance of commercial gas in Leadville and below is probably below 50% when you take into account possibility of excessive H2S and leadville being either dry or not adequately fractured (I would imagine trying to fracture a formation at the pressures present 16000 foot down would be technically difficult).

Yes - they may well have commercial gas up to enough to make this well worthwhile.

Wanty is just stating a fact on the markets - they overreact bigtime to even a sniff of slightly bad news. For clever traders this is a great thing as it provides the opportunity to make big gains even on bluechips.

I won't let myself think that there is more than 40% chance of leadville being full of commercial gas, to do so would lead to dangerous (st@pid) trading decisions. This is why people lost everything on the .com bubble.

If this was a dead-cert 440bcf resource that was commercial at high flow rates the sp would currently be $5, at this price the market is factoring only a 10% chance of success (allowing that the sp will not be zero if not). I'm taking an educted punt that the likelyhood of success is signifiantly higher based on past research (including trawling through every single well report for the paradox basin) - and this is why I think that odds are I'll make at least a 300% profit from current prices (multiplied by my current 100% profit = 700% profit total).

I agree with wanty that if leadville is dry that there will be a bigtime overreaction to say 25-30c before a bounce to 50-60c by the start of flow testing for higher zones. To me - though I will lose my profit on current holdings, I could buy lots more at botom and cover my losses by selling at the top of the bounce.