I think you have me beat, since I don't think I broke the top 20. But I've had a good profit anyway, since I had confidence even when people were selling down to $0.10.
My current thoughts: volume peaked in mid-June (so last quarter was cashflow positive with June being the best of the 3 months), then volume pulled back in July and early August (maybe some attrition after the huge spike in sign-ups in March/April), but then late Aug/Sept has seen volumes push to new records (thankfully, since I was getting a little nervous), so this quarter will probably beat last quarter's volume.
I think sign-ups also picked up in late Aug/Sept, after having slowed down in July/Aug.
Overall, a good end to the quarter (quarter almost over).
Their market share still looks to be rising, so still on that good trend. A lot of new competitors are popping up, so the faster they can innovate, the better (getting ANZ off their butt to get instant transfers working).
I think they're losing some customers/potential-customers to the new competitors, but it's not an exodus. It seems like the majority are still fans of SWF, and not willing to swap to save $1.50
Here's a simple measure of their current usage. their app ranking being relatively improved in late Aug/Sept, compared to other finance apps.
Commsec by comparison (not improved over that period):
Organic Google traffic had a similar spike, but I don't think that's a main driver of sign-ups, just a secondary one.
Significantly, they've re-enabled ads in September. It may mean that they're not overwhelmed anymore, and have the staff capacity, so are happy to start re-enabling some advertising again (probably starting with the most cost effective).
According to SEMRush, they're only targeting the keyword 'Selfwealth', which is a bit odd, and I'm not sure if it's correct. Possibly the competitors started bidding on 'Selfwealth', so they were sort of forced to bid on it. If there were no competitors bidding on it, then it would seem like a waste of money, instead of letting people just click the organic results for the brand.
Q4 - last quarter, the quarter that gets cashflow skewed up by EOFY sale. Q1 - this Q, the Q that gets skewed down from higher free trades after EOFY sale. May still be cashflow positive though,since I think volume is still rising. Q2 - the Q that gets skewed down by Christmas (but with Oct-Nov having a chance for some unbiased growth). Q3 - The first regular quarter of the year, where we get to see the full effect of the cumulative growth of the past 6-9 months (plus discounted brokerage terms come into effect). The quarter I'm most interested in. Until then, I'm mostly wanting to see them continue on the path of increasing market share.
I didn't bother showing the big spreadsheet so much lately, since we already reached break even, and that was what I was waiting for most (so that the ongoing risk is reduced, and the chance of capital raising reduced). Whether we make $200k cashflow or closer to $1m cashflow is not all that different in the short term (since we're no longer at a low market cap like $30m). Mostly I want to see market share continue to rise, so cashflow can be nice and strong by March.
(20min delay)