re: have people received their ssp application for Thanks for that Snake and Shania,
I've been ambivalent about the stock given the uncertainty about contracts and reserves but the recent reserves reports has forced me to do a major rethink...I'm a little suspicious about the size of the 1P reserve increase but I can't think of any reasons to think they estimates are grossly inaccurate (i.e by three of four times)...enough error that there isn't enough gas for the two contracts.
Even if the contracts fall through...with that much gas they could probably do a joint venture for a power station (i.e. you build it and we farm you in) or they might just go it alone (although financing could be a problem).
Dilution is a concern but its impact on the share price should be more than offset by massive increase in reserves. Also, there might not be that much of a dilution anyway given recent prices. Of course, until they have some contracts signed and some revenue the proper price is in the eye of the beholder...but I think its worth a punt.
I think the price may also be weighed down by many small buyers who are eligible waiting to buy through the SSP while institutionals and other interested parties wait to see the extent of the dilution. In some ways I hope no one but me gets on the SSP and that the dilution is small. Then, after the size of the dilution is publicised, that the share price leaps up due to pent up demand and an announcement about a contract being signed (you'd think something would come soon regarding Incitec)...just daydreaming though.
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