This might be of interest to some considering the heading
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold sentiment is attracting contrarians — and gold stocks are intriguing traders, again.
Mark Hulbert just reported that his Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index is now at its lowest level since March 2009, when gold was only just above $900. He regards this as a bullish contrary opinion sign.
Of course, you have to be patient. Mark says he first noted bullish sentiment signs two months ago. But gold has been stuck in a narrow $1,600-$1,700 trading range since then.
Still, that’s better than gold shares. The equity-oriented short-term trading letter Gold Charts R U service summarized the story grimly in its recent issue:
“The worst decline in gold shares happened over the last two months. Gold shares in general lost 21% compared to gold’s 9.5% decline since the February high, which has been disappointing. The worst part of the gold-share fall was from mid-March to the latest low.”
GCRU doesn’t offer any particular theory on why this divergence has occurred. It’s a technical service: it just charts gold, stocks and indices and says what it sees.
Right now, however, what GCRU sees is dramatic:
“Gold shares are cheap. They’re the cheapest they`ve been since the financial crisis of 2008. That is, comparing gold shares to gold and the stock market, we haven’t seen a weaker time period.”
The letter concludes:
“Something is likely going to turn sentiment around soon, and whatever the trigger ends up being, gold shares are poised to bounce up.”
Writing on May 1, GCRU said of its chart of the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index
“Overall the HUI continues to form a bullish downside wedge pattern as you can see in the chart below. The downside wedge has an upside target of 525 (the Dec downtrend line). Even though HUI has broken out and above its wedge, it must clearly break above the downtrend on a two-day close above 475. Nonetheless, we must be cautious as during the past month we’ve seen several bull traps from downside wedges and other bullish formations.”
Lagging gold shares have been the albatross following the great post-millennium gold bull market. Gold stocks have historically been tremendous money makers in bull markets and a rebound has been several times forecast — GCRU itself tried it earlier this year.
It didn’t work then. But the service must have gotten back onside pretty quickly: it reportedly is now even on the year
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- any thoughts on the current correction
This might be of interest to some considering the headingBy...
Featured News
Add NST (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$14.83 |
Change
0.230(1.58%) |
Mkt cap ! $17.04B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$14.79 | $14.95 | $14.72 | $48.95M | 3.297M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 14986 | $14.80 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$14.84 | 7865 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 14986 | 14.800 |
1 | 13467 | 14.780 |
2 | 13467 | 14.770 |
2 | 45599 | 14.760 |
2 | 7950 | 14.750 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.840 | 7865 | 2 |
14.880 | 347 | 1 |
14.890 | 13467 | 1 |
14.900 | 1653 | 2 |
14.910 | 13467 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
NST (ASX) Chart |