I first found nearmap in Feb 13 when management announced "cash flow positive" status. I bought some, held them for a while, then sold - made good money. My reading of their progress is that management have carefully and competently monetised their technology in Australia. The key reason for the SP fall appeared to be the significant expense based investment in the US and not any momentum loss or management cock-up.
The Half announcement will show a revenue increase pcp around 20% but I suspect a move from small profit to a smallish loss due to the impact of the expense increases referred to above.
I think the concern for investors is whether nearmap can replicate its Australian success with the move to the US; the US has been a graveyard for a lot of Aussie companies. There would appear to be quite a number of aerial survey services in the US so competition is omnipresent; the issue is whether nearmap's offering is sufficiently superior (image quality, continuous update, time lapse presentation tools, delivery system) to generate a viable business.
I have bought a few more at 39.5 and am watching them carefully; not sure yet that I'll hold then through the Half announcement.
NEA Price at posting:
38.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held