At $3.60 (before opening today) Qantas shares are 46% below...

At $3.60 (before opening today) Qantas shares are 46% below their price on 20 Feb (broadly the last date before the stockmarket started to be affected by the virus).

Fair enough that the price of Qantas should fall on fears of the virus in Australia and worldwide.

But the virus appears all but defeated now in Australia. People doubting this should look at the number of current cases of the virus whereby the source is under investigation - this is the best indication of how many people still have the virus and can spread it within the community. On my last post about this subject a week ago the figure was 32. The latest figure is 9 and of those 4 come from Tasmania and appear to have been under investigation since 9 May. Plenty of time for the virus to have left the person(s) spreading the virus within that community. The fact that Tasmania has had only 1 new case since 8 May supports this argument. I hear some of you saying, yes the figure is falling but it is not that easy to get to zero so there will always be some source we don't know about and some fear in the community. Well it's zero in New Zealand now.

So if I am right and the virus is defeated why don't Qantas shares go back toward the 20 February price of $6.67. These are some of the reasons people have suggested:

• the rest of the world has far from beaten the virus and International travel is probably a year maybe two away (except for travel to New Zealand and possibly some pacific islands);
• people will be scared to fly for some time even if the virus is defeated;
• flying is not what it was as people now find it is not as necessary as thought to do business;
• Qantas will have a lot of International planes wasting away;
• unemployment will be much higher in Australia now and world growth could be low for ages.

Maybe but you have to assess how many of these things will be permanent changes rather than temporary. If you buy Qantas shares now, arguably, you get a 50% discount into perpetuity once the world, as is inevitable, conquers the virus. In the meantime you get the benefit that while the world searches for a cure, Qantas will soon be back to a reasonable proximity of normal within Australia.

Ask yourself these questions:

• is it likely international flying holidays will be replaced by Australian flying holidays in the next year and is domestic travel the place where Qantas is most profitable?
• will 'virus flying fears' continue once no one in Australia is infected?
• if world growth is lower won't the price of jet fuel also be lower?
• is flying an important industry and one that Qantas should dominate in Australia for as far as the eye can see?
• is Qantas one of the world's most profitable airlines and extremely well managed?
  
• do you think investors are chilled by what is happening to airlines overseas and Buffett selling out of airlines and do you think these fears are impacting the Qantas share price?
• and if so, should such fears apply to Qantas who will soon be operating in one of the few countries in the world that has beaten the virus so far?