dacata, you say $10 billion 5 years from now. I take it you're...

dacata, you say $10 billion 5 years from now. I take it you're not wanting to sound too optimistic, but think about your statement for a moment. A market cap of $10 billion has to be looked at from two differnet angles, asset backing and earnings.
1 Asset backing. To justify a $10 bill mc, you'd need to have a realisable asset of 3-5 billion tonne of coal that can be mined and transported to market in a reasonable manner. That puts a price per tonne of $2-3. Unless the world suddenly finds huge amounts of energy resources as well as a substitute for steal in the next five years, that price per tonne is conservative at best.
They already have 1.2 billion tonne from the early drilling on 2% of their land holdings. It does not appear possible that within 5 years they will be sitting on less than 5 billion tonne, and in fact could well have twice that.
So from an asset point of view the mc in 5 years nearly has to be $10b, but more likely somewhere between $20 to $30 billion. (Don't call this $100 to $150 per share as there must be some dilution in that time because of the scope of the projct-potentially). Also it depends on the yearly production and transport capabilities as you can't imagine any use of a mine life of 1000 years producing 10 million tonne per year given the state of the planet.

2 Earnings. here we start having to make certain assumptions and guesses. Let's start with a base case or worse case scenario. That looks like 3 collieries each producing about 4.5 million tonne thermal and 3 million tonne hard coking coal. The thermal should earn them $15 to $20 per tonne with a mixture of exporting some but most being used locally in the on site or near site thermal power station built by the Indians and supplying an area that is absolutely desperate for energy. In this regard, no thought whatsoever has been given to the value of the coal bed methane that could be piped to South Africa.
The hard coking coal should be able to earn $40 to $50 per tonne if we discount the current prices (every report I've read does the opposite but we're being ultra conservative here) The estimated cost is in the $40 to $50 tonne range delivered to India or Europe.
Those two numbers add up to about $200 million net profit per colliery or $600 million for three. In the interest of being conservative, give one third of that profit to Tata (presuming RIV never produce from their 100% owned tenements -couldn't be bothered?) and we have $400 million profit. With a mine life of 60 to 500 years, a PE of 15X should also be a minimum so we have a mc of $6biil or $30 per share, with no dilution necessary.
Note that this allows for absolutely no upside, which we'll now look at.
One big upside potential is transport down the Zambezi River. IF that is possible (anyone with an idea on this feel free to chime in) then quite possibly 50 million tonne or more could go down the river to add to the 10 to 20 million tonne going by rail. If not possible to barge down river than I'm sure work will be done on the rail and port facilities to expand them. This is only the export potential. Remember that an almost unlimited volume of thermal could be put through the local power stations of which RIV has an exclusive agreement with Elgas, the supplier of 90% of power to the 4 or 5 five local countries involved, including South Africa.
Also sellable locally is the high quality hard coking coal to the new steel mills to be built in Mozambique by Mittal, recently announced. Mittal are now the world's largest steel producers by a factor of 3X and they got there ridiculously quickly by having the balls to expand. I've no idea how much would be sold to Mittal but I think it could be another 30 million tonne or so per annum (please feel free to elaborate on this if you have any thoughts).
We're lookin here at potentially 200 million tonne per annum with a fair split of thermal to hard coking coal. Using $20 profit per tonne of thermal with the vast majority not needing to be transported and $60 per tonne for the coking coal (could be less in 5 years but also could be well over $100 per tonne profit with not much transport), the average profit per tonne is $40 times 200 mill tonne equals $8 billion per annum profit. With a mine life of 50 years a PE of 10X would appear conservative enough and so we have a market cap potential of $80 billion. Clearly this is not going to happen without a fair bit of dilution to the current 200 million shares but this is the best upside potential.
It may sound a ridiculous number but we are looking at quite possibly the world's largest and maybe last massive resource of a commodity that is in short supply.