Blythefan,
Hallgarten & Company in their 24 June 2008 Research Report value the Rincon As:
"We could say that we feel that Rincon, with a $50mn capital raise (with $50mn debt financing) would be worth $500mn one year into production. Is that too much to expect? That would represent around 4% of the value of SQM at this time. Indeed if one placed a 20X multiple on Rincon (compared to the 65X of SQM), then valuations of over $1bn could be conceivable. However, when one considers the current valuation of ADY and arbitrarily splits it in half to represent the demerged parts then even low end valuations for Rincon once in production would still represent multiples of the valuation on the day of demerger, presuming the stock price stays around current levels until that event."
Your analysis of the iron ore business you indicate that earnings for 100% could be :
"So, by 2011 they'll produce (they say) 10Mtpa concentrate grading 69% Fe, earning them $300M gross profit. $210 after tax. $186M after interest, $166M after repayments, minus sustaining capital"
Therefore, ADY @ 60% will probably have cash flow of $99.6M (60% of $166M). What would yoy value the iron ore business at?
Regards
SP
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